"Democracy and the Downturn"

From the Economist, Nov 15 - Nov 21 2008, "Democracy and the Downturn"

I thought this was an interesting article because it examines poling data from the Latinobarometro poll of South and Central American peoples' views of their governments. Historically, this is a region which has not seen strong democracies until very recently, and even now many of those democracies may not be considered entirely free--demonstrated, for example, by the recent elections in Nicaragua.

The Latinobarmetro poll does show that, since the poll in 2001 (which is when they had their last economic crisis) people's faith in democracy in 12 of the 16 states surveyed has increased. However, only in 5 states have those numbers exceeded the 1996 poll--and those nations are ones which have seen recent democratic victories, such as success against Hugo Chavez's referendum for constitutional change in Venezuela, or Alvaro Uribe's success against the FARC, or in Paraguay where the long ruling Colorado Party was displaced by the election of Fernando Lugo.

The worry is, with the current global economic crisis deepening, whether or not these democratic successes and faith in the democratic system will continue. In many of these states, people adopt a performance legitimacy view, and the numbers of this year were taken before the effects of the crisis had fully unraveled. If their governments are unable to deal with the crisis, that may produce openings for strongmen like Chavez to take control.

Indeed, half of those polled stated that they would not mind a non-democratic government if it solved economic problems; a similar proportion said that democracy has not reduced inequalities in the region; while another 30% said there was not equality before the law.

I think this poll helps give understanding to the importance not just of democratic institutions, but of economic stability and rule of law in establishing democratic rule. In many poor Central American states, democracy has never been able to fully take hold because of the deep rooted socioeconomic inequalities--70% polled agreed that governments favor the interests of the privileged few. It remains to be seen whether Latin America will be able to consolidate its recent democratic gains, and speak out against those losses as in Nicaragua. If the current economic crisis is to be weathered without social and political upheaval, democracy may be the best tool of addressing inequality in the region--but only if those democratic institutions represent the interests of all.